Should I buy / sell real estate in St. Petersburg in 2016? The forecast for real estate prices depends on the price of oil and the exchange rate of the leading currencies (dollar, euro). If the dollar continues to grow, selling an apartment is clearly not worth it. When selling real estate, you will lose a significant amount in foreign currency.
For example, an apartment was put up for sale for 6 million rubles at a dollar exchange rate of 60 rubles, i.e. at the time of the announcement, the owner could receive 100 thousand US dollars. However, while they were looking for a buyer, making out a deal, time passed. Let's say the dollar exchange rate has grown to 70 rubles, and at the time of the transaction, the seller will receive 6 million rubles in his hands, but it will be only 85,714 thousand dollars. Thus, the loss in currency will be 14286 dollars.
With the jumping exchange rate of the national currency, the most reasonable option for selling real estate would be to fix the price in dollars or euros. For those who buy real estate, it is more profitable to keep money in dollars / euros, and pay in rubles. From the above example, it is clear that for the buyer the apartment will cost $14,286 less.
According to analysts' forecasts, the dollar exchange rate by the end of 2016 will be 80-100 rubles, provided that the geopolitical trends of the end of 2015 continue. The fall of the ruble will negatively affect the interest rate of mortgage loans. Considering that almost every third apartment is bought on credit, the growth of sales from developers will be in question. The decline in the purchasing power of the population also does not add optimism.
On the other hand, real estate sellers under the influence of inflation will raise prices. First of all, the increase in prices will affect the secondary real estate market. Suppose that the owner decided to sell his "odnushka" bought 2 years ago for 3 million rubles. At that time, it cost about 100 thousand dollars in dollars.
In 2015, he will try to sell it for 5 million, i.e. will receive at best 83,333 dollars (5 million rubles: 60 rubles). The seller will lose 16.7 thousand dollars (100-83.3), but at the same time, the ruble income will be 2 million. It should be borne in mind that demand has significantly "dipped" and buyers are in no hurry to part with their money.
The negative scenario of stagnation of the residential real estate market is not beneficial to anyone. Whether it is worth buying or selling real estate in an unstable market is up to you, but if there is no urgent need, it is better to wait until prices come into balance.
Most experts agree that the cost per square meter in Moscow in 2016 is unlikely to drop significantly, which means that you can already start choosing nice apartment at an attractive price.
The past 2015 in the real estate market, both in the primary and in the secondary, turned out to be difficult. Against the backdrop of unfavorable economic factors, which were caused by high inflation and a reduction in real incomes of the population, prices per square meter in Moscow slowly crept down.
Summing up
“In the secondary market of Moscow, the cost of housing has been declining for most of 2015. However, at the beginning of the year, against the background of a noticeable reduction in the volume of supply, the offer price grew, which prompted many owners to re-enter the market. Starting from April, the offer price gradually began to correct downwards. This trend continued until the end of the year. In December, the offer price was 221.5 thousand rubles per square meter. The decrease in the average unit price of the offer in relation to March 2015 (the maximum price for the period) amounted to 11%, while since the beginning of the year its decrease has not exceeded 4%,” she said. Irina Pesic, Managing Director of the brokerage department "MIEL - Network of Real Estate Offices" .
A similar situation applies to the primary market, new buildings. True, developers, unlike private owners, have more room to maneuver, because their price per square meter does not depend on the cost for which they bought this apartment, like from private owners, but on the cost of construction. The final price includes a fairly large margin, which, if necessary, can be reduced. Hence the opportunity to painlessly make discounts for a fairly standard 10-15%.
But even taking into account discounts, as construction progresses, the price of any apartment in a new building increases - the closer the moment the house is put into operation, the more the cost per square meter is. Along with the decline in prices in already finished projects, the cost grew in those residential complexes that continued to be built. These two factors, leveling each other, have led to the fact that the average price per square meter in the primary market has even slightly increased. True, this applies to the mass segment, in the business class there was a drop in prices.
“In the mass segment on the primary real estate market in Moscow, the average price per square meter has not changed much and is at the level of 147,890 rubles. Over the year, the growth was only 0.4%,” explains Maria Litinetskaya, managing partner of Metrium Group.
However, despite the willingness of owners to make concessions in price and discount programs from developers, the market volumes in 2015 significantly decreased.
“The main trend of the year was a radical decline in the market volume. If we talk about secondary housing, the number of transactions decreased by 30-35%, for new buildings due to the state mortgage support program, the failure is not so strong - about 20%, ”Maxim Morozov, managing partner of the m9 development development company, cites statistics.
This leads to a logical question: has the market bottomed out? If so, then we can expect prices to rise. If not, can we talk about the continuation of this free fall?
“The topic of “market bottom” and “big price drop” is actively discussed in the media, from time to time certain experts predict an imminent market collapse, however, based on the results of 2015, price dynamics still does not give grounds to talk about the onset of this very bottom. The cost of construction continues to increase due to the rise in the cost of foreign building materials and equipment, as well as increasing the cost of freight and labor. The fall in prices, which was predicted this year and which did not happen, most likely will not happen next year,” says Volodymyr Bogdanyuk, head of the Est-a-Tet analytical and consulting center.
What will happen to prices in 2016?
“According to our estimates, while maintaining the current macroeconomic situation, the absence of acute situations in politics and the economy, the coming year in the secondary housing market will be approximately similar to 2015 - with the difference that sellers and buyers in general have adapted to the general uncertainty and largely parted with illusions about the imminent collapse of prices, as well as about their inevitable increase against the backdrop of rising inflation and the continuing weakening of the ruble. In such a situation, we do not expect sharp changes in ruble prices. Rather, we can assume their slight gradual decline by the end of the year - by about 5-7%, ”explains Sergey Shloma, director of the secondary market department at INCOM-Nedvizhimost.
Similar indicators are expected by experts in the primary real estate market.
“If we consider the forecasts for macroeconomic indicators, then, according to forecasts that have already been adjusted several times, GDP is expected to be -0.8%, inflation is 9.5% and a continuing decline in real incomes of citizens. Considering that it is inflation and real incomes that affect effective demand, we see that the picture is not optimistic. And according to the laws of macroeconomics, the price is a reflection of demand, so you should not expect price increases. For example, in the Moscow region, developers predicted a rise in prices since the beginning of the year, but left them at the same level precisely because they are afraid of falling sales. It must be admitted that the market for new buildings is no longer attractive for investment, ”answers our question. Natalya Shatalina, General Director of MIEL-Novostroyki .
The current situation plays into the hands of the buyer, who is going to buy an apartment not as a relatively short-term investment, but, as they say, for himself to live in it.
“Most likely, the current trend will continue in the market, at least in the short term. In the current conditions, the buyer is in an advantageous position, and it is very profitable to buy apartments for yourself! The secondary market is highly dependent on external economic and political events, and if the situation worsens, then prices will obviously not rise, but fall,” Svetlana Birina, head of the secondary real estate department at NDV-Nedvizhimost, is sure.
Buy or sell?
But markets are markets, conjunctures are conjunctures, and the common man needs to know the answer to two specific questions. The first of them sounds like this: is it worth selling an apartment now, if there is a need for it? After all, after such a decline, the market may start to grow rapidly and soon recover its positions, as we already saw in 2008. Then the same apartment can be sold more expensive.
“In my opinion, now is not the best time to sell real estate, and many owners are well aware of this. Now it is possible to sell successfully and without a big discount only objects that have a full set of characteristics of a liquid offer - with a high level of transport accessibility, optimal layout and good repair. Far from all objects have such characteristics, while the rest, in conditions of declining demand, can only be sold with a discount. Today, it makes sense to sell housing only if an alternative transaction is carried out, when new, more comfortable housing is immediately purchased with the funds from the sold apartment. Otherwise, by selling his property, the owner may come out of the crisis with a smaller amount of proceeds due to the depreciation of the national currency, and he will no longer be able to purchase more comfortable or even similar housing, ”Vladimir Bogdanyuk explains the situation.
In the current situation, the recovery of the market may take more than one year. So it may take a long time to wait for the return of the cost of your apartment to the mark of the end of 2014.
“Today is not the best time to sell real estate, and it doesn’t matter if it’s a new building on assignment or housing on the secondary market. Supply exceeds demand, leaving investors and second home sellers in an unenviable position. Buyers dump and discount the cost up to 10-20%. As a result, today only housing is sold, the owners of which are ready to make concessions. At the same time, there are no prerequisites for improving the situation. 2016 for the secondary market may be even more difficult. The ruble exchange rate is losing its positions again, everyday expenses are increasing, there are practically no buyers with “live” money on the market. Therefore, if funds from the sale of an apartment are needed within 1-2 years, then I advise you to hurry up with its implementation. If the money is not required urgently, then it is worth selling housing only after the market recovers. And it will take more than one year, ”says Maria Litinetskaya.
The main thing is to clearly understand for what purposes the money from the sale of the apartment will be used. If these are some urgent tasks that cannot be shelved, then price increases should not be expected. If you are selling an apartment to buy a new one, then the mechanism that the Russians have already fallen in love with to help you is an alternative deal.
“It all depends on the goals that the owner of the property adheres to. If we are talking about a sale with a subsequent purchase, then there is no need to be afraid of a transaction. There will be no financial losses, since both apartments will be sold at a discount (both sold and bought). Direct sales are made by those owners who need such a transaction due to everyday situations. It should be noted that in the current situation, many people took a time out and decided to postpone the sale, however, the volume of housing on the secondary market is very large,” Svetlana Birina believes.
The second question that Russians are now asking is whether it is worth buying an apartment now, or is it better to wait until prices fall further?
“For buyers, this is a very good moment - the market is very emotional now, and sellers who are in dire need of money are going to a very large discount. Accordingly, the probability of finding a good object at a very attractive price is quite high,” Maxim Morozov is sure.
Those who kept money in foreign currency get an even greater advantage.
“Relatively speaking, a person who in May 2015 had savings in dollars sufficient to buy a one-room apartment in Moscow, at present, without going beyond the same budget, can afford a two-room apartment of the “comfort +” category or a three-room economy apartment. class. At the same time, the foreign exchange market is unpredictable, no one knows when to expect a rebound of the ruble, and in general, the mood of homebuyers who have dollars and euros as savings is now such that people assume an imminent "bottom", are not inclined to stubbornly stay in the currency "until the victorious ”and readily consider interesting options for solving their housing issues,” explains Sergey Shloma.
There is one more piece of advice for those who are thinking about buying an apartment and are inclined to the option of “wait” until the price drops.
“It is worth remembering that in a falling market, the most liquid objects quickly find new owners. And expecting more price reductions, you can simply miss out on the apartment you dreamed of, ”warns Irina Pesic .
Summarizing all of the above, we can conclude that in 2015, although housing prices fell, they did not reach the bottom, in contrast to the market, where the outflow of transactions amounted to almost a third. In the coming year, experts do not expect sharp fluctuations, which means that most indicators will remain at the current level. In such a situation, if there is no need, it is better to postpone the sale of the apartment. But today is the time to buy square meters - you should not wait for the weather by the sea. Instead, it is better to try to snatch the most tidbit at an attractive price.
Experts say that in a crisis it is better not to buy housing on credit, since it is difficult to calculate payments for years in advance, and you should not take on new buildings.
Rambler publication experts. asked the question: is it worth buying real estate in the conditions of the economic crisis, the falling ruble exchange rate and other events on the market.
First of all, it depends on the purpose for which the property is needed. If you buy an apartment for yourself, then you can take it now, however, having studied the market well, and in no case, not in a new building.
More importantly, it’s better to take even for yourself now only for cash. Mortgage and credit can become a serious problem in the future: in a crisis it is difficult to calculate your expenses for the coming years. If you really want to take a mortgage, then it is important to calculate that the payment is no more than 30% of family expenses.
Investments are not so easy. Investing in real estate to make money is not the best time. Now the average yield from renting out housing is 5%, and, for example, guaranteed federal loan bonds bring 10%.
At the same time, it is important to remember that when renting out housing, income is not so passive: you need to keep order, the condition of the apartment, and pay utility bills.
It will be difficult to sell an apartment in case of problems, or at a discount and loss of money.
In the capital region, experts do not advise buying apartments outside the Moscow Ring Road. The market is oversaturated with offers of real estate in the suburbs and the so-called New Moscow. Housing there will be introduced in considerable quantities in the new year, which means that the prices for such "real estate" are unlikely to be high.
In the case of buying an object under construction, it is important to take into account the prospects of renting an apartment or premises for rent. These can be “odnushki” or “dvushki” within walking distance from the metro, not in old houses, or unusual options with the possibility of redevelopment. Options with a ground floor may be of interest because, as a rule, they are cheaper at the acquisition stage, but the number of floors does not significantly affect the rental price.
According to AHML, due to the current economic situation and reduced demand for housing in many regions, housing prices began to decline. Thus, according to the results of the 3rd quarter of 2015, a decrease in prices in the primary housing market (compared to previously reached highs) was recorded in 54 regions, and in the secondary housing market - in 66 regions. At the same time, a decrease in prices by more than 5% was observed in the primary market in 14 regions, and in the secondary market - in 16 regions. It should be noted that in 2008-2009 the price decline was observed in all regions of Russia, and it was more significant - up to 29% in the primary market, and up to 38% in the secondary market.
At the end of 2015, the five most expensive cities in our country looked like this: Moscow, where a square meter in the primary market costs 245,034 rubles, St. Petersburg (101,545 rubles), Vladivostok (82,167 rubles), Moscow region (77,025 rubles) and Khabarovsk (74,499 rubles).
According to the average cost of supplying apartments, except for the capital, where the price of a lot reaches 27,070,242 rubles, St. 4,313,999 rubles), displacing the Moscow region (4,248,318 rubles) and Khabarovsk (4,090,445 rubles).
The cheapest cities in terms of the cost of a square meter of new buildings are Magnitogorsk (29,152 rubles/sq. m), Bryansk (32,275 rubles/sq. m), Makhachkala (33,996 rubles/sq. m), Saratov (34,295 rub./sq. m.) and Stavropol (36,384 rub./sq. m.).
How will house prices change in 2016?